I’m not foolish enough to think this 2024 ladder prediction will be anywhere close to the end result but the process of assessing each team, looking for positives and negatives is a fun one.
It’s also one that tells me 2024 could be the most competitive season yet.
The AFL is becoming very NFL-like with the ‘on any given day anyone can beat anyone’ mantra becoming a reality in our competition as well.
Brisbane, Collingwood and perhaps Carlton feel like the standouts to me and I’m happy to state West Coast, North Melbourne and likely Hawthorn will be down the bottom end … but the dozen or so in between could land anywhere.
Having stated my disclaimer - here is how I see the 2024 ladder landing…
18 to 13
Position: 18th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Simply must be Harley Reid — the man wearing Nic Nat’s number nine. But how will they use him? We saw Reuben Ginbey explode early and just get worn down because of the lack of strength and consistency around him.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
Reuben Ginbey develops and confirms to Eagles fans that he will become one of the better inside/contested/tacking/clearance midfielders in the AFL within 2-3 seasons.
I’m not sure we’ve seen enough to say he can become the level that Clayton Oliver and Tom Green are at, but he will be somewhere in that sphere eventually. He can become maybe a better version of Jack Redden.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: Ginbey, Reid and Tim Kelly form the beginnings of a gun on-ball crew. Can Matt Flynn replicate the teammate who effectively sent him packing in Kieran Briggs and take a giant leap? Pardon the pun.
Worry: Injuries to the same old names… Jeremy McGovern, Elliott Yeo and those that remain as premiership players and experienced leaders.
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
Evolve from kick/mark game style which won them the 2018 premiership and tell the kids to turn things loose.
Sure, you’ll give up some fearful scores against, but they do that already. Teach the kids the game Monday to Friday and allow them to play the game with flare on weekends.
Position: 17th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Will Day’s emergence… but where… and will he be established in a single role?
54 games in, four seasons in… enters season five at around 85kg and with AFL-level endurance to be a devastating running midfielder who can go where the game needs him.
Too often we saw him on the last line protecting against momentum… keep him on or around the ball all season.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
Ned Reeves and Lloyd Meek continue to mix and match the No. 1 ruck role, with neither really establishing themselves as the one.
Maybe it’s Reeves… maybe.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: We hope someone can settle down beside Mitch Lewis as a genuine No.2 key forward.
Worry: The worry for me is that person is not currently on the Hawks list… we’ve seen Mabior Chol and we know Jack Gunston is at the end of the road.
Need to see much, much more from Denver Grainger-Barras before we give him the nod.
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
Keep Day stationed in a single role. Luke Hodge and Shaun Burgoyne were deployed where needed and Day has that capability but those two did that more often once they were fully established as A-grade players.
Position: 16th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Charlie Comben’s return. He’s a fearless target ahead of the ball beside Nick Larkey. He attacks the ball in the air and like all the key forwards these days, he’s around 6’7”. He’s coming off a broken ankle/leg and is only a handful of games into a career.
Since the age of 15, he’s had: a broken wrist, broken inner cheekbone, fractured kneecap and broken tibia, re-fractured the kneecap… all before he was drafted.
Then, in the AFL: a back fracture, tibial stress issue that needed surgery, broken collarbone, broken ankle which he is recovering from now… talk about a lengthy list!
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
Big forwards will kick big bags.
Who plays on Curnow/McKay, Hawkins/Cameron, Lewis, Lynch, King, King, Allen, Naughton/Ugle-Hagan and more?
Aidan Corr is maligned but more importantly he’s just not big enough. Griffin Logue is out most of the season with an ACL injury. Will Dawson is a baby who stands 200cm… but he’s 87kg. Hawkins and those big boys are 105kg or more.
Toby Pink joins as a mature 25-year-old defender but he’s spent 3 seasons on Sydney’s rookie list… can we expect him to man these Coleman Medal winners? Kallan Dawson is another 25-year-old key back. He’s more of a hybrid defender who may be asked to man these types.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: That Tarryn Thomas repays the club with a full season of quality footy without any interruptions or disruptions. Above average ratings for clearances and tackles, can he become elite?
Worry: Todd Goldstein is gone but what’s left? I like Comben long-term as a key forward/ruck chop out but will Tristan Xerri or Callum Coleman-Jones make the leap as a genuine No. 1 ruck up against McInerney, Darcy and Jackson, Gawn, Grundy, Nankervis, Marshall, English… and the list goes on.
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
I want to see the game style evolve - or at least when things are under the pump - not to see the defenders chipping the ball around in protection mode. Too often McKay, Ziebell and Corr were willing to kick sideways and backwards.
Position: 15th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Josh Gibcus down back after a horror season through injury. They’ve reportedly left no stone unturned to ensure he resumes and remains healthy.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
They win a few games thanks to Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton. How many, I’m not sure.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: The hope is Jacob Hopper comes on after an interrupted and disjointed opening season as a Tiger alongside Tim Taranto who can really do no more than what he provided last season.
Worry: Injuries to Tom Lynch persist and the young players do not come on as needed.
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
Martin back around the ball. I think they’ll need him to make the game easier for others by foot across the middle of the ground.
Position: 14th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Jye Amiss hopefully with more presence around him. Josh Treacy needs to come on so Amiss can be what he is, a Jack Gunston-style roaming, crafty forward.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
Attacking issues and ball movement remain an intertwined issue. Slow movement because of no trust and no trust causes slow ball use.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: Jordan Clark, Luke Ryan, Hayden Young and others can be more creative and definitive with ball use off half back. Optus Stadium is large… spread the ground and create speed on the ball.
Worry: Fewer goals than last season… Amiss kicked 41 – he’s there, Lachie Schulz kicked 33 – gone, Michael Walters kicked 33 and is aging, Michael Frederick kicked 26 – he’s there and Luke Jackson is probably a tick for his style of play.
Can Treacy go from 15 in 17 games to 30 in 18 games? Can one of the on-ballers go forward and provide cameos… Is Nat Fyfe a wildcard or simply a bonus?
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
Find an avenue to goal… not Fyfe but someone we all are yet to think of!? Darcy as a plonking, hulking FF? Brennan Cox swung forward.
Position: 13th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Max King. I am a buyer of all King stock (Max or Ben). More reps at AFL level, more health and training reps and more confidence in his set shots.
He averaged 2.54 goals per game last season off the bad shoulder issue. 71 games, four seasons in the books, aged 23 … he is primed, and he will need to be.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
Mitch Owens carries on as one of the best all-around 1 v 1 players in the game. His contested possession numbers away from stoppages are as good as anyone’s in the AFL. A remarkable player. Back up ruck (we can stop that), on-ball at times, hybrid tall forward… everything.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: Jack Hayes gets a look at AFL. Prototype second ruck/key forward. Just looks like a player.
Six games: 18 disposals, 3 goals, 10 marks, 4 tackles. Nice PBs so early in the career.
Worry: Jack Steele struggles again. Looked way off the pace at different stages in ’23.
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
Structurally… Rowan Marshall 80 per cent ruck, Hayes 20 per cent ruck / 60 per cent forward, King key forward one, Owens as medium forward (impossible match-up) and occasional stoppage attendee.
12 to 7 and 6 to 1 to be revealed in the coming days...