Former Collingwood assistant Brenton Sanderson believes Sydney are a big chance to break Collingwood’s 11-game winning streak based on performances throughout 2022.
Craig McRae’s side has undoubtedly been the surprise packet of the season, surging into second on the ladder ahead of Round 22 after a massive run of form.
Coming up against Sydney at the SCG this weekend, the Magpies can lock themselves into the top four for a double-finals chances.
But a loss – which would be their first since Round 9 - could see them finish the round in 5th if results don’t go their way.
Sanderson believes how both sides go about keeping the footy off each other could determine the clash.
“The key stat for me is how many marks Sydney allows Collingwood to take,” he said on SEN’s Whateley.
“Defensively, Sydney must stop them taking marks.
“In their losses this year – you have to go back a lot earlier in the season – but when they lose, Collingwood, they take 20 less marks than their opponents, five a quarter.
“I want to start with Geelong versus Collingwood… in that game Jeremy Cameron kicked six, Tom Hawkins kicked three. It was contested possession in the last quarter, Geelong 42 to Collingwood 28, there’s a bit of a theme there, contested possession.
“Collingwood took 80 marks that night, that’s for me the key number.”
Sanderson continued: “Round 5, Brisbane Lions won by seven points. Collingwood took 78 marks, Brisbane Lions took 13 marks inside their forward 50, Joe Daniher kicked four goals.
“Round 8, Richmond win by 27 points, Collingwood takes 74 marks, Tom Lynch kicks six goals.
“Round 9, the Bulldogs won by 48 points. Collingwood took 85 marks, Aaron Naughton kicked three, but remember, the Western Bulldogs don’t play with a tall forward line.”
Sanderson believes that if Sydney brings its strength, the game could follow a similar trend to Collingwood’s earlier losses.
“What does Sydney do really well? They’re number two in the competition across the whole season for preventing opposition marks. This is something they’re really good at, they deny the opposition the ball, he added.
“When Collingwood lose they don’t take marks, and that’s one of Sydney’s strengths, that’s their wheelhouse.
“When Sydney win, they take 20 more marks than the opposition, so once again, it’s right in their wheelhouse.”
The Swans could be as high as second on the ladder if they win on Sunday afternoon.
Sunday’s clash begins at 3.20pm AEST.