I’m not foolish enough to think this 2024 ladder prediction will be anywhere close to the end result but the process of assessing each team, looking for positives and negatives is a fun one.
It’s also one that tells me 2024 could be the most competitive season yet.
The AFL is becoming very NFL-like with the ‘on any given day anyone can beat anyone’ mantra becoming a reality in our competition as well.
Brisbane, Collingwood and perhaps Carlton feel like the standouts to me and I’m happy to state West Coast, North Melbourne and likely Hawthorn will be down the bottom end … but the dozen or so in between could land anywhere.
Having stated my disclaimer - here is how I see the 2024 ladder landing…
12 to 7
Position: 12th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Aaron Naughton and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan becoming the No. 1 duo in the AFL. Naughton often looks sore. He plays the game in a combative manner so I wonder what his lifespan looks like as a premier key forward. No doubt, he needs to kick more accurately as well. 47.40, 51.34 and 44.33 have been his returns across the past three seasons. Can he improve by 5 per cent?
Ugle-Hagan is an emerging force. He can do some of everything. He even applies some defensive pressure. They’ve handled him well, all in all.
But speaking of inaccuracy… he kicked 35.35 last season. And 18.16 the year previous, so accuracy is more of an issue for him than Naughton.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
The Dogs will look like world-beaters half a dozen times. They’ll go on the road and beat a top-four team. They’ll roll up to a blockbuster clash and dominate from wire to wire.
With Marcus Bontempelli, Tim English, Naughton, Ugle-Hagan, Tom Liberatore, Adam Treloar- and the list goes on… of course they’ll look good… but for how long and how consistently?
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: The depth players rise to the fore. You tell me Dogs fans… who are the unknowns who can rise up and improve the Dogs?
Pat Lipinski improved Collingwood across a season, Isaac Quaynor improved them, and Dan McStay improved them. Who improves the Dogs when we know what we’ll get from the stars…
Worry: Inexplicable losses. Last season, we saw some poor, poor, poor losses.
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
A Round 23 loss to West Coast at Marvel anyone? A loss in Tassie to Hawthorn, losing in Ballarat to GWS, a loss at Marvel to Port, a cough-up in the NT to Gold Coast and they started 2023 with back-to-back losses to Melbourne by plenty (50 points) and 51 at Marvel against the Saints.
We’re not asking them to win them all… but that’s too many losses in games where they’re expected to win.
The land of the giants needs to be settled down. Sam Darcy, Liam Jones, Alex Keath, English, Ugle-Hagan, Rory Lobb, Naughton and we add Jordan Croft and James O’Donnell to that group.
Position: 11th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
The response. The response to a summer of drama and to questions on whether the Dees have wasted an era of success… we’ll place Clayton Oliver to the side because of the obvious issues he faces and we wish him well.
But what will the experienced Demons do about the season or so from hell? Or next door to hell. Questions on the coach, issues popping up all over the place… what is the response?
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
Max Gawn will be a force. The Brodie Grundy experiment missed, and he goes across to be a Swan. So Gawn will carry on as the No. 1 ruck in the game… but will his work be enough to overcome some other obvious holes?
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: Someone. Anyone bobs up and becomes a proven goal kicker. Shane McAdam knows where the goals are but he’s unlikely to become an All-Australian medium forward. Kysaiah Pickett is a pressure/creative forward more so than a goal scorer whilst Jacob Van Rooyen is learning and growing and goals do not yet come freely to him.
Worry: Avenues remain dry. Jake Melksham gone. Joel Smith gone. Where do we get 14 goals from to be consistently winning games?
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
All summer long they’ll have been working on what we all call ’the money kick’. The connection inside fifty.
They’ll have been doing mids-forwards drills endlessly… ball on the ground, ball carrier gets two or three leading options to kick to. There are so many drills they can do but only under the pressure do we learn whether they’ve improved their kick retention inside fifty.
Position: 10th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Nate Caddy… something about the young man. Is there some Jack Riewoldt about him? The hair yes but the build, he’s an in-between size who looks like he can use his body well, is creative and loves to play the game.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
Jake goes up. Jake goes down.
Jake Stringer is what he is these days. It’s hard to imagine they’ll get much more from him than what we’ve seen across the past season or so. Last season, 21.23 in 17 games. Only kicked 3 or more twice and only kicked 4 in his last six games of 2023.
Also only managed more than 20 touches once.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: Harry Jones’ woes are behind him, he’s had some stress issues in his back and he gets a look at AFL footy. He’s got some things to work on. His movement and prediction of the game and when to move and lead needs work… something you can learn - somewhat - on the computer or tablet but can only really adjust to in games.
Worry: What do they get from big Ben McKay. I could care less about the wage. What we care about is the fact he’s been brought in to command the defence, to take on and defeat gun forwards and give the Dons a 200cm pillar down back.
For too long, it’s been undersized key defenders trying to man the fort… but will McKay do the job to the level Bombers fans hope he does? The jury is out…
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
Lean right into speed, ball movement and making life easier for your forwards. Peter Wright is as good a bargain buy as we’ve seen, Kyle Langford had a brilliant 2023 but aside from him, Stringer’s form waivers, Jones is unproven but players like Nic Martin, Zach Merrett, Sam Durham, Darcy Parish, Andrew McGrath can run and gun.
So run and gun. Especially at Marvel Stadium.
Position: 9th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Esava Ratugolea and Aliir Allir down back as a dynamic intercepting duo.
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher somewhere there in the mix as well but Esava and Allir are both as adept at marking the ball as they are stopping someone. Could be a great tandem.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
The Power ball-winners will continue to be a force. Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis look to be the most agile, explosive and hard-to-tackle on-ballers in the game.
Rozee’s footwork around the loose ball is phenomenal. Butters is not far behind him and adds that element of genuine toughness and grunt whilst JHF is a blend of everything but needs to keep adding consistency and easy opportunities to his game. Which he should do.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: Ollie Lord is told he is the man. I really, really like what he’s bringing to the table.
He’s 21 and kicked a nice 4 goals in the Qualifying Final in Brisbane when everything else was failing around him.
He has size, athletic prowess, agility, and he looks like a nice competitor. What do we expect statistically? Unsure, but the talent is there. Leave him in the forward mix and watch him grow and grow.
Worry: Ollie Wines… where does he play? I labelled him as a trade option to benefit three parties… the team receiving him, Wines himself and Port as well. The young guns are locked in, Willem Drew looks like the preferred choice as the run-with mid and Dan Houston, Travis Boak and others need opportunities around the ball as well.
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
Forward line balance… Charlie Dixon, Lord, Todd Marshall … does Mitch Georgiades get back and impact?
I’ve got time for Francis Evans, Horne-Francis may spend some time down there… but how tall is too tall and who gives way? I’m playing Lord in front of Dixon - for now…
Position: 8th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Mac Andrew and Bodhi Uwland down back. Both highly touted (Andrew joined with pick 5 in 2021) and Uwland came via the Suns academy. Uwland is tough and looks like he can play on all sizes at 188cm and 88kg.
Andrew has had his issues, but his dash and dare as a running defender are rare. Andrew averaged 2.4 intercept marks and 3.8 spoils last season. His upside is gigantic.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
They’ll start with a bang.
Damien Hardwick’s demand and oomph. Richmond at home in Opening Round, Crows at home, Dogs in Ballarat, Giants in Adelaide for Gather Round, Hawks at home…
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: The young talent time arrives with a bang. Jake Rogers on-ball assisting the core group, Jed Walter up front alongside Ben King and Jack Lukosius and Caleb Graham and Ethan Read playing a part somewhere along the line.
Worry: The load again falls on Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson, Touk Miller and Jarrod Witts.
All play high game time on the ball. Eventually, you know they’ll wear down. As honourable and hard-working as Anderson, Rowell, Miller and big Jarrod are… 7 or 8 versus 4 will always win.
The Suns need more guys able to get around the ball without a significant drop-off in output and clearance/contested possession wins.
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
Metricon Stadium is 161 x 134m… it’s a relatively wide ground, so the Suns need to use the dimensions of the ground to their advantage.
Assist the offence without a lot of great kickers… make the ground long and wide in attack, therefore creating space for ball users and receivers alike.
The squad needs more good kicks. Who is the best kick at Gold Coast?
Position: 7th
Most excited to see (big improver or acquisition)
Is there more?
Is there more from Kieran Briggs in the middle, Callum Brown as a contest winning forward, Jack Buckley as Phil Davis’ top 10 key defender in the AFL, more from Connor Idun as a play-on-anyone defender or more Toby Bedford and Brent Daniels as a dynamic 1-2 punch?
If there is… in year two of the Adam Kingsley era, then look out, folks.
Sure thing (something you can take to the bank)
Key cogs will lead the way…
Toby Greene, Stephen Coniglio, Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield off half back…
Will anyone go near Whitfield this season? Coniglio’s resurgence was immense and very admirable. Toby thrives on leadership and responsibility and Josh Kelly has gone from cream to cake. A creamy cake admittedly.
Thinking they’ll again lead the way and if they do, they’ll be a force.
Hope and worry (one thing to makes you hopeful and one that’ll make you worry)
Hope: I hope Aaron Cadman demands a position within the 22 over Lachie Keeffe.
Keeffe is 33, with some amazing roles played in his top drawer but he’s played 111 games for 18 goals. Greater Western Sydney needs Cadman to take the lead and demand a position in the 23. Not dominate, but demand a place in this forward mix.
Therefore, can Jake Riccardi be the key forward/ruck? At 198cm and 100kg, why not?
Worry: Did they play above themselves and go on a run?
Seriously, everything else seems in good nick. But was last season’s Prelim run an aberration in performance or is that where this group really lands?
Maybe, drop off from Coniglio (30), Greene (30), Callan Ward (33), Kelly (28) and Jesse Hogan (28).
Xs and Os (coaching/game plan adjustment)
Can they rediscover Nick Haynes’ best form? Out of the side at stages last season, a sub as well… his best is outstanding, but it seems Harry Himmelberg has overtaken him in that hybrid defensive role.
6 to 1 to be revealed in the coming days...